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Q:
The T in the model TAF = S + T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).
Q:
Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging.
Q:
An advantage of a weighted moving average is that recent actual results can be given more importance than what occurred a while ago.
Q:
Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.
Q:
In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average must be known.
Q:
A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.
Q:
The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.
Q:
The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.
Q:
The naive approach to forecasting requires a linear trend line.
Q:
Forecasts based on an average tend to exhibit less variability than the original data.
Q:
Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.
Q:
Forecasting techniques that are based on time-series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.
Q:
The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens.
Q:
A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives. Each alternative was tested using historical data. The resulting forecast errors for the two are shown in the table. Analyze the data and recommend a course of action to the manager.
Q:
Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha) of the last period's forecast to estimate the next period's demand.
Q:
A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 to forecast weekly new car sales. Given the data below, would a naive forecast have provided greater accuracy? Explain. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 (i.e., no forecast for period 1).
Q:
The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.
Q:
A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.
Q:
Use of simple linear regression analysis assumes that: A. variations around the line are nonrandom. B. deviations around the line are normally distributed. C. predictions can easily be made beyond the range of observed values of the predictor variable. D. all possible predictor variables are included in the model. E. the variance of error terms (deviations) varies directly with the predictor variable. That deviations conform to the normal distribution is a very important assumption underpinning simple linear regression.
Q:
Time-series techniques involve the identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.
Q:
Forecasts based on time-series (historical) data are referred to as associative forecasts.
Q:
The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of resources, and accuracy level can be understood.
Q:
When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive option.
Q:
Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.
Q:
Forecasts help managers both to plan the system itself and to provide valuable information for using the system.
Q:
Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.
Q:
Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since many plans have been made using the original forecast.
Q:
For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when using exponential smoothing techniques.
Q:
Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.
Q:
Data on the last three years of demand are available as follows: What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?
Q:
Data on demand over the last few years are available as follows: What is this year's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .2 and beta = .1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?
Q:
Data on demand over the last few years are available as follows:
Q:
A manager uses this equation to predict demand: Yt = 20 + 4t. Over the past eight periods, demand has been as follows. Are the results acceptable? Explain.
Q:
Demand for the last four months was:
Q:
Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below. Forecast deliveries for period 11 through 14.
Q:
Given the following data, develop a linear regression model for y as a function of x.
Q:
Given the following data, develop a linear regression model for y as a function of x.
Q:
Use linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for burial vaults based on sales of caskets.
Q:
Given the data below, develop a forecast for period 6 using a four-period weighted moving average and weights of .4, .3, .2 and .1.
.
Q:
A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax audits: Yt = 55 + 4t. Demand for the past few years is shown below. Is the forecast performing as well as it might? Explain.
Q:
A manager has been using a certain technique to forecast demand for gallons of ice cream for the past six periods. Actual and predicted amounts are shown below. Would a naive forecast have produced better results?
Q:
Over the past five years, a firm's sales have averaged 250 units in the first quarter of each year, 100 units in the second quarter, 150 units in the third quarter, and 300 units in the fourth quarter. What are appropriate quarter relatives for this firm's sales? Hint: Only minimal computations are necessary.
Q:
A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product: Yt = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last year
Quarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2. What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year?
Q:
A manager is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at a suburban branch of a department store chain. Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the next period?
Q:
Consider the data below: Using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, and assuming the forecast for period 11 was 80, what would the forecast for period 14 be?
Q:
Develop a forecast for the next period, given the data below, using a three-period moving average.
Q:
Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?
A. what customers are most likely to do in the future
B. what customers most want to do in the future
C. what customers' future plans are
D. whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past
E. what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be
Q:
Which of the following would tend to decrease forecast accuracy?
A. a reduction in demand variability
B. a shortening of the forecast time horizon
C. an attempt to forecast demand for a group of similar items rather than an individual item
D. a change in the underlying causal system
Q:
Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?
A. contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long-term forecasts
B. penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts
C. sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain
D. increasing lead times for critical supply chain members
E. increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain
Q:
Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short-term forecasting?
A. bringing greater variety into the product mix
B. increasing the flexibility of the production system
C. ordering fewer weather-sensitive items
D. adding more special-purpose equipment
E. investing in the production system to make it more task-specific
Q:
Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short-term forecast performance?
A. increased inventory
B. reduced flexibility
C. higher-quality products
D. greater customer satisfaction
E. greater seasonality
Q:
The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data? A. 1,250 B. 128.6 C. 102 D. 158 E. 164
Q:
The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data? A. 3,600 B. 3,500 C. 3,400 D. 3,300 E. 3,200
Q:
A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts? A. 100 B. 200 C. 400 D. 500 E. 800
Q:
Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .5 and beta = .1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5? A. 49.3 B. 50.6 C. 51.3 D. 65.4 E. 78.7
Q:
The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .3 and beta = .2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150? A. 162.4 B. 180.3 C. 301.4 D. 403.2 E. 510.0
Q:
A company has introduced a process improvement that reduces processing time for each unit; output is increased by 25 percent with less material, but one additional worker is required. Under the old process, five workers could produce 60 units per hour. Labor costs are $12/hour, and material input was previously $16/unit. For the new process, material is now $10/unit. Overhead is charged at 1.6 times direct labor cost. Finished units sell for $31 each. What increase in productivity is associated with the process improvement?
Q:
The weekly output of a production process is shown below, together with data for labor and material inputs. The standard inventory value of the output is $125 per unit. Overhead is charged weekly at the rate of $1,500 plus .5 times direct labor cost. Assume a 40-hour week and an hourly wage of $16. Material cost is $10 per running foot. What is the average multifactor productivity for this proc
Q:
Suppose a country's productivity last year was 84. If this country's productivity growth rate of 5 percent is to be maintained, this means that this year's productivity will have to be:
A. 88.2.
B. 79.8.
C. 82.8.
D. 78.9.
E. 4.2.
Q:
Which of the following factors would tend to reduce productivity?
A. improvements in workplace safety
B. reductions in labor turnover
C. more inexperienced workers
D. reductions in the scrap rate
E. less variety in the product mix
Q:
___________ is generally used to facilitate an organization strategy that emphasizes low cost.
A. Speed to market
B. Flexibility
C. Customization
D. Sustainability
E. Standardization
Q:
Increasing the service offered to the customer makes it more difficult to compete on the basis of:
A. order qualifiers.
B. customization.
C. quality.
D. price.
E. flexibility.
Q:
For firms competing in worldwide markets, conducting __________________ is more complex, since what works in one country or region might not work in another.
A. productivity analysis
B. environmental analysis
C. strategy implementation
D. sustainability analysis
E. growth forecasting
Q:
Years ago in the overnight delivery business, providing package tracking capability gave some firms a competitive advantage. Now, all firms must offer this capability simply to be in this line of business. This is an example of ______________ becoming ____________ over time.
A. tactical implications; strategic
B. strategic implications; tactical
C. order winners; order qualifiers
D. profitability factors; productivity factors
E. order qualifiers; order winners
Q:
Unique attributes of firms that give them a competitive edge are called:
A. functional strategies.
B. Balanced Scorecards.
C. supply chains.
D. core competencies.
E. sustainable initiatives.
Q:
A firm pursuing a strategy based on customization and variety will tend to structure and manage its supply chain to accommodate more _____________ than a firm pursuing a strategy based on low cost and high volume.
A. variation
B. streamlined flow
C. quality
D. capacity
E. productivity
Q:
The Balanced Scorecard is a useful tool for helping managers translate their strategy into action in the following areas:
A. Sustainability; Flexibility; Efficiency; Technology
B. Customers; Financial; Internal Business Processes; Learning and Growth
C. Customization; Standardization; Efficiency; Effectiveness
D. The Environment; The Community; Suppliers; Other Stakeholders
E. Strategy; Tactics; Productivity; Profitability
Q:
The weekly output of a fabrication process is shown below, together with data for labor and material inputs. Standard selling price is $125 per unit. Overhead is charged weekly at the rate of $1,500 plus .5 times direct labor cost. Assume a 40-hour week and an hourly wage of $16. Material cost is $10 per foot. What is the average multifactor productivity? A. 1.463 B. 1.457 C. 1.431
Q:
Gourmet Pretzels bakes soft pretzels on an assembly line. It currently bakes 800 pretzels each eight-hour shift. If the production is increased to 1,200 pretzels each shift, then productivity will have increased by:
A. 50 percent.
B. 33 percent.
C. 25 percent.
D. 67 percent.
Q:
Which of the following is not a key factor of competitiveness?
A. price
B. product differentiation
C. flexibility
D. after-sale service
E. size of organization
Q:
The manager of a carpet store is trying to determine the best installation crew size. He has tried various crew sizes with the results shown below. Based on productivity, what crew size do you recommend? A. 2 B. 3 C. 4
Q:
Which of the following is not a reason for poor performance of our organization in the marketplace?
A. placing too much emphasis on product/service design and too little on process design
B. failing to take into account customer wants and needs
C. putting too much emphasis on short-term financial performance
D. taking advantage of strengths/opportunities, and recognizing competitive threats
E. failing to monitor the external environment
Q:
In an assembly operation at a furniture factory, six employees assembled an average of 450 standard dining chairs per five-day week. What is the labor productivity of this operation?
A. 90 chairs/worker/day
B. 20 chairs/worker/day
C. 15 chairs/worker/day
D. 75 chairs/worker/day
E. 60 chairs/worker/day
Q:
The external elements of SWOT analysis are:
A. strengths and weaknesses.
B. strengths and threats.
C. opportunities and threats.
D. weaknesses and opportunities.
E. strengths and opportunities.
Q:
Time-based approaches of business organizations focus on reducing the time to accomplish certain necessary activities. Time reductions seldom apply to:
A. product/service design time.
B. processing time.
C. delivery time.
D. response time for complaints.
E. internal audits.
Q:
Which of the following is not typically considered a cure for poor competitiveness?
A. Remove communications barriers within organizations.
B. Minimize attention to the operations function.
C. Put less emphasis on short-term financial results.
D. Recognize labor as a valuable asset and act to develop it.
E. Improve quality.
Q:
With regard to operations strategy, organization strategy should, ideally, take into account:
A. operations' strengths and weaknesses.
B. inventory levels.
C. labor productivity.
D. product mix.
E. production processes.
Q:
Core competencies in organizations generally do not relate to:
A. cost.
B. quality.
C. time.
D. flexibility.
E. sales price.
Q:
Which of the following is true?
A. Corporate strategy is shaped by functional strategies.
B. Corporate mission is shaped by corporate strategy.
C. Functional strategies are shaped by corporate strategy.
D. External conditions are shaped by corporate mission.
E. Corporate mission is shaped by functional strategies.
Q:
Value added can be calculated by:
A. average productivity gains over time.
B. inputs divided by the outputs.
C. outputs divided by the inputs.
D. input plus output divided by two.
E. outputs minus inputs.